In my today’s blog I would like to discuss on CRB index ( Commodity index) . Because of the better US economic figure , extreme loose monetary policy by the BOJ and increase in Yen carry trade , have made the bullions as the worst performing asset class. Well its sounds perfectly fine if we analyse the current global scenario but are we missing out something very important i.e Cyclical nature of all the financial assets .
As said bond market is the first which makes high than stock market and last CRB index . Looking at the US 10 years yield ,DJIA and CRB index , bond market touched their highs near July-August 2012 and if we add 16 months in that we would get the approx timing of the Stock market high and 2 months in that would fetch us the approx timing of the CRB to make their highs, it means Jan 2014 . We assume the next asset class which might give the best return would be CRB.
We assume bullions might fetch 6-8 % in the coming two months. Hence we would like to place our bullish bet on CRB and neutral on Indices.
Please find the attached report on Silver . We advice to go long on dips for an upside target till 49000-51000 and Gold 32000-32800. Crude might touch 6130-6200 before January 2014.